According to the weather office on Saturday, India is anticipated to have a hotter-than-normal summer this year, with heatwave days in March and May predicted to surpass the seasonal average.
According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), minimum temperatures in March, the first month of summer, are probably going to stay above average in most places.
According to IMD data, February was the fifth warmest February since records began in 1901, with both maximum and minimum temperatures above average.
From October to December, winter crops including wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are sown. For best results, they need cold temperatures throughout their life cycle.
According to a Mumbai-based dealer with a worldwide trade firm, March’s above normal temperatures may have an impact on the grain size of winter-planted crops that are maturing, thereby lowering yields.
In order to export excess wheat and reduce expensive imports of palm, soy, and sunflower oils, India, the world’s second-largest producer of wheat and largest importer of edible oils, is depending on bumper 2026 crops.
From March to May 2026, above normal heatwave days are anticipated over the majority of the country, Mr. Mohapatra stated.
WHY IS THE TEMPERATURE RISING SO QUICKLY?
The cause of this premature heat is a confluence of atmospheric forces. The IMD notes that in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Delhi, maximum temperature deviations are already three to five degrees Celsius over average.
Dry February
The weather bureau reports that between January 1 and February 28, there was a 59.9% rain deficit, with a 54.8% deficit over northwest India, an 89.5% deficit over east and northeast India, a 78.7% deficit over central India, and a 2.3% excess over the South Peninsula.
However, it also noted that the 4.2 mm of rainfall over India was the lowest since 2001 and the third-lowest since 1901. Rainfall was the third lowest in NW India as well (5.9 mm), the lowest since 2001 and the third lowest since 1901. Long term data from IMD shows a clear pattern of low rainfall starting in February 2016.
When mean temperatures are taken into account, it was the third warmest February in northwest India, and when nighttime temperatures are taken into account, it was the third warmest February nationwide.
In February, the average temperature in northwest India was 27.41 degrees Celsius, 1.71 degrees Celsius higher than average.
The nation’s average minimum temperature was 14.76 degrees Celsius, which was 0.94 degrees Celsius warmer than usual.
Mohapatra stated that despite the exceptionally dry weather in February, there is a chance that rain would fall over northwest India in March, which could either slightly lower temperatures or keep them closer to normal.
The increased probability of heatwave conditions during the March-April-May (MAM) season may pose serious risks to public health, water resources, power demand, and essential services. Vulnerable groups, including the elderly, children, outdoor workers, and people with pre-existing medical conditions, may be particularly affected.
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In addition to causing more strain on infrastructure and resource management systems, high temperatures can cause heat-related illnesses. Therefore, the IMD has urged that state authorities and district administrations make sure that they are ready in a timely manner.
This includes making sure that cooling shelters are operational, providing enough drinking water, and strengthening health surveillance.
